Catalina Shopping Basket Index Shows Signs of Stabilizing Grocery Prices, Yet Price Variations Persist

While U.S. grocery prices show signs of stabilizing in Q3 2024, some categories continue to outpace the overall inflation rate, according to data from Catalina’s rich, real-time Shopper Intelligence Platform.

Catalina’s Shopping Basket Index, which tracks the aggregate average price changes of 10 common grocery product categories in the U.S., indicates that the overall rate of inflation in Q3 (2%) Has significantly decreased from the same period last year (12%) and from Q1 2024 (3%).

Lingering inflationary impact
“Our data reflects what consumers are experiencing at the checkout – prices are stabilizing in many key categories but not across the board,” said Wesley Bean, Catalina’s US Chief Revenue Officer. “Even as the rate of inflation stabilizes, the cost of many items is significantly elevated compared to pre-pandemic pricing and has remained sticky with consumers. They continue to adapt by seeking value through promotions, low-cost operators or private brands.”

For instance, Cereal Bars posted a 13% price increase compared to an 8% rise for their private brand counterparts in Q3 2024. Private brand share in the category rose from 53% to 60% over the same period. The price of Value Frozen Dinners has stabilized, returning to approximately 2022 levels after experiencing a 5% increase Q3 2023.

Category-specific volatility
Six of the 10 tracked categories are currently at or below the Shopping Basket Index average inflation rate of 2%. This is slightly higher than the overall 1.3% inflation rate for food at home reported in September US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Catalina’s Shopper Intelligence Platform revealed the price of Deodorants (6%), Soft Drinks (5%), Hand & Bath Soaps (4%), and Cereal (3%) continued to rise YOY, while Soaps & Detergents and Frozen Vegetable prices remained flat and Frozen Prepared Foods costs fell -2%.

Several categories showed significant shifts in Q3, highlighting the ongoing price volatility:

• Hand & Bath Soaps: Prices dropped dramatically to 4% in Q3 2024 from 8% in Q1 2024 and 20% in Q3 2023. Competing factors could be at play, including the return of ad campaigns to promote handwashing as cold, flu and COVID cases begin their winter uptick offset by potential consumer stockpiling during the pandemic.

• Soft Drinks, Mixes, and Water: The overall category dipped to 4% inflation in Q1 2024 after experiencing significant price hikes a year ago (18%). Prices have rebounded slightly to 5% in Q3 2024. The blended unit price across sizes for regular cola soda is $4.75 versus $4.49 a year ago and $3.32 before inflation took off.

• Frozen Prepared Foods: Prices dropped to -2%, led by a significant price reduction for meal starters, which fell 18% YOY to an average unit price of $3.50. Overall, prices are stabilizing following higher frozen food inflation (9%) in Q3 2023. Frozen Meals and Frozen Dinner sales are declining across the category, despite falling prices.

About Catalina
Catalina is a leader in shopper intelligence and highly targeted in-store, TV and digital media hat personalizes the shopper journey. Powered by the world's richest real-time shopper database, Catalina helps retailers, CPG brands and agencies optimize every stage of media planning, execution and measurement to deliver $6.1 billion in consumer value annually. Catalina has no higher priority than ensuring the privacy and security of the data entrusted to the company and maintaining consumer trust. Catalina has operations in the United States, Costa Rica, and Europe. To learn more, visit www.catalina.com.