2023 Thanksgiving Sales Trends: How CPGs and Retailers Can Get Their Share of the Pie
Thanksgiving is around the corner and there’s still time to make a final push for incremental sales. Despite stores not being completely stocked with typical harvest products — like bulk turkeys or fresh cranberries — Catalina looked at sales trends for the 13 weeks leading up to September 17, 2023.
At this early stage, basic fruit pie ingredients are already trending. Unit sales for Pie Crust Mixes are up +64% versus this time a year ago, while prices have remained the same. Perhaps Pie Crust Mix sales are stoked by the average price increase (+9%) shoppers are seeing on Pie Shells (shelf stable and refrigerated), which dropped in unit sales (-5%) since this time last year.
And what about the fillings? Canned Pumpkin is the clear leader with unit sales increasing +23% vs. YAGO, likely thanks to the -7% decrease in average price since last year. Similarly, All Other Canned Pie Fillings are experiencing an +8% lift in unit sales amidst a slight price decrease (-1%) since last year. The Specialty Canned Fruit category is not as lucky with their prices increasing +16% affecting its unit sales (-18%). No matter which way you cut it, Baking Enthusiasts are already gearing up for the big day!
Talking Turkey About the 2022 Thanksgiving Selling Season
Using data from the 2 weeks leading up to last year’s Thanksgiving, we compared shopping baskets across the U.S.
If we’re still talking pie, there were a couple regions going all out with more ‘from-scratch’ options. The West and Midwest were more likely to purchase Whipping/Heavy Cream — 90% and 50% respectively —when compared to the national average. Plus, canned Whipped Cream sales under-indexed in these locations. Conversely, the Northeast welcomed canned Whipped Cream — 80% more likely to purchase than national average — and were 60% more likely to purchase off-the-shelf Pie Crust Mixes than the other regions.
Similarly, for pie filling, the West and Midwest were 20% and 50% more likely to prefer Specialty Canned Fruit than the national average. And it is no surprise that Pecans were purchased 40% more often in the South.
When it comes to the main course, the Northeast and South were less likely than the other regions to purchase Turkey at traditional retailers. Specifically, the Northeast and the South were 30% and 40% respectively less likely to purchase frozen turkey. For refrigerated Fresh Turkey, the Northeast was 40% less likely to purchase, while the South was 90% less likely. Canned cranberries were 20% more likely to be purchased in the Northeast.
The importance of the Thanksgiving selling season for Retailers is reflected in our data. Last year, the average sales dollars for shopping baskets with Thanksgiving items was 2X more when compared to all shopping baskets.
Catalina Can Help Harvest More Profit This Year
Whatever the trends this Thanksgiving season, Catalina’s 1:1 purchase insights on nearly all U.S. households will help you dig deep to understand, find, activate, and optimize your seasonal marketing programs. We customize marketing campaigns based on your objectives and budget. For example, check out this real-world example for another key holiday ingredient — Vermont Creamery Butter.
Understanding shopper behavior in real time helps us intelligently and dynamically deliver the right message across the right media most efficiently. If you’re looking to maximize product engagement and incremental sales, contact us today.
2023 Thanksgiving Sales Trends
| Product Group | Volume Change/YAGO | Average Price Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Pie Crust Mix | 64.1% | 0.0% |
| Canned Pumpkin | 22.7% | -7.3% |
| Whipped Cream | 7.8% | 2.8% |
| Canned Pie Fillings - All | 7.7% | -1.2% |
| Whipping/Heavy Cream | 1.3% | 6.4% |
| No-bake Mixes | 0.3% | 6.7% |
| Baking Nuts | -2.2% | 4.3% |
| Fried Onion Topping | -2.5% | 6.1% |
| Sugars All | -4.3% | 20.3% |
| Fresh Herbs & Spices | -4.7% | 9.4% |
| Pie Shells | -5.1% | 9.1% |
| Dried Fruits - All | -5.5% | 9.9% |
| AO Dried Fruits - ex Raisins/Prunes | -5.6% | 10.8% |
| Refrigerated Toppings | -6.2% | 7.9% |
| Dried Fruits - Raisins | -6.9% | 7.6% |
| Pecans | -6.9% | 1.2% |
| Blended Juices | -9.4% | 6.3% |
| Stuffing Mix | -9.6% | 8.4% |
| All Frozen Poultry | -10.5% | 5.3% |
| Mac and Cheese | -11.2% | 8.9% |
| Canned Cranberries | -12.8% | 11.2% |
| Specialty Canned Fruit | -18.8% | 16.1% |
| Refrigerated Meat Substitutes | -19.8% | 3.3% |
| Baking Sugar Substitutes | -25.5% | 10.8% |
SOURCE: Catalina Shopper Intelligence Platform, 13 weeks ending 9/17/2023 versus same period a year ago
U.S. Shopping Baskets by Region
Midwest
| % More Likely to Purchase | % Less Likely to Purchase |
|---|---|
| All Frozen Poultry (62%) | Canned Cranberries (29%) |
| Turkey – Frozen (75%) | Turkey - Fresh (81%) |
| Whipping/Heavy Cream (48%) | Whipped Cream (83%) |
| Specialty Canned Fruit (23%) | Pie Crust Mix (70%) |
| No-bake Mixes (142%) | Blended Juices (22%) |
Northeast
| % More Likely to Purchase | % Less Likely to Purchase |
|---|---|
| Canned Cranberries (22%) | All Frozen Poultry (42%) |
| Whipped Cream (82%) | Turkey - Frozen (28%) |
| Pie Crust Mix (66%) | Turkey - Fresh (42%) |
| No-bake Mixes (40%) | |
| Whipping/Heavy Cream (23%) | |
| Pecans (23%) |
South
| % More Likely to Purchase | % Less Likely to Purchase |
|---|---|
| Fruit Glazes (20%) | Turkey - Frozen (39%) |
| No-bake Mixes (28%) | Turkey - Fresh (89%) |
| Pecans (40%) | Refrigerated Meat Subs (23%) |
| Baking Sugar Subs (not packets), (26%) | Fresh Herbs & Spices (40%) |
| Whipped Cream (87%) | |
| Pie Crust Mix (61%) |
West
| % More Likely to Purchase | % Less Likely to Purchase |
|---|---|
| All Frozen Poultry (125%) | Canned Cranberries (37%) |
| Turkey – Frozen (226%) | Fresh Cranberries (57%) |
| Turkey - Fresh (683%) | Stuffing Mix (25%) |
| Refrigerated Meat Subs (46%) | Mac and Cheese (33%) |
| Whipping/Heavy Cream (92%) | Whipped Cream (56%) |
| Specialty Canned Fruit (49%) | Pie Shells (26%) |
| Fresh Herbs & Spices (244%) | Pie Crust Mix (78%) |
| No-bake Mixes (41%) | |
| Sugars All (21%) | |
| Baking Sugar Subs (not packets), (27%) |
SOURCE: Catalina Shopper Intelligence Platform, 2 weeks ending 11/23/2022
Average Pre-Thanksgiving Shopping Basket Totals in 2022
The importance of the Thanksgiving selling season for Retailers is reflected in our data. Last year, the average sales dollars for shopping baskets with Thanksgiving items was 2X more when compared to all shopping baskets.
• Average basket with Thanksgiving items $100.36
• Average all baskets $48.12
SOURCE: Catalina Shopper Intelligence Platform, 2 weeks ending 11/23/2022